Friday, 1 March 2013

Indian Government to Miss Revenue Growth Target, Crisil Reports


Crisil today reveals that the Government of India is likely to miss its revenue growth target for next fiscal year.

Reputed rating agency Crisil today reveals that the Government of India is not at all likely to complete its revenue growth target, which it had set for itself, for the next fiscal year due to it’s over ambitious estimation from spectrum sale and disinvestment of the PSUs.

                                                        In a very latest report, in which it had studied the overall Indian economy completely, Crisil said, “We believe the government is likely to miss the revenue growth target of 23.4 per cent in 2013-14 as investment and spectrum sale targets are too ambitious."

                                                       Crisil added the expected estimation of the Indian Government to collect revenue of Rs 58,000 crore from disinvestment and Rs 40,000 crore from the sales of spectrum will be quite a tough nut to break. It will be very difficult to achieve such high targets, it said in its report.

                                                      The report clearly mentioned that to achieve the target budgeted revenue and expenditure will be a not-so-easy task to do. India is having a very poor GDP figure as of now, and along with that next year will be the year of Lok Sabha election, which will make the target more difficult, sort of impossible to achieve.

                                                      However Crisil did mention that the proposed fiscal consolidation would be able to create a sustainable environment, and it will be an added plus factor as Reserve Bank of India may cut the interest rates to support the overall growth. The fiscal consolidation could hurt the growth factor in the short run only.

                                                      Earlier Crisil forecasted that the GDP figures of India Inc. will be 6.4% (growth) for the next fiscal, and in its latest report it eventually retains that, saying that expecting more than that is highly unlikely considering the present scenario. I already posted that IMF predicts India’s FY13 growth rate to 5.4%.

                                                   "As budgetary proposals are broadly in line with our expectations, we retain our pre-budget forecast of 6.4 per cent GDP for 2013-14, which is the midpoint of the GDP growth range (6.1 to 6.7 per cent) that the budget has assumed," Crisil added in its report.

                                                Crisil, the reputed rating agency, assured that the inflation would surely decline in the next financial year. It said that the WPI inflation will have an average of around 6.5% because of the several factors including the low crude oil price in the global market. There are other factors too that will help to control inflation such us lower core inflation and gradual strengthening of Indian rupees. You may like to read Current Economic News in India here.

                                                 Crisil said that the extra market borrowings for this fiscal would be able to create a tremendous pressure on 10-year G-Sec yields. It has to be mentioned here that the Indian Government will borrow Rs 4.84 trillion in the next financial year from the market compared to Rs 4.67 trillion in the current fiscal year.

                                                  "However, we expect a lowering of the repo rate by 50-75 bps during the rest of 2013-14, due to lower inflation. This will lower the floor for the G-Sec rate and soften yields to around 7.7-7.8 per cent by March-end 2014," it concluded in its report.

                                                     The good news that as per the Crisil report Indian rupee will settle down around 51-52 per dollar by the end of March 2014.

                                                       Do you like this article and want to stay updated with all the Latest Indian Current Affairs updates? If yes then please take a second to Subscribe to us via email for all the free Current Affairs updates. You can send your queries, suggestions to us by accessing this Contact Us Form.

0 comments:

Post a Comment